Actualizado al 12/01/2015
Este cometa, cuya predicción lo ponía como máximo en la magnitud 8,6 (apenas visible desde cielos oscuros con binoculares), pasó a fines de diciembre la magnitud suficiente como para poder pronosticar, que llegaría a la mag. 4. Hoy, ya supero la mag 3,8, y es visible débilmente a simple vista desde cielos oscuros, Con binoculares presentas una débil cola.El Lovejoy fotografiado por Andres Chapman. |
Adicionalmente, cruzará una zona del cielo fácil de hallar, y en un horario interesante, no demasiado tarde.
Fue descubierto el 17 de agosto de 2014 por el australiano T. Lovejoy, en magnitud 14,8. El perihelio lo alcanzará el 30 de enero de 2015.
Estará en diciembre en la constelación de Pupis, del 18/12 al 27/12 en Columba, del 28/12 al 2/1/15 en Lepus, del 3/1 al 9/1 en Eridanus, del 10/1 al 16/1 en Taurus y del 17/1 al 24/1 en Aries.
Fue publicada en Sky and Tel. Tomadas por Gerald Rhemann en Austria, trabando remotamente con un astrógrafo de 30 cm f/d 3,6 en Namibia. Son de fines de diciembre, cuando no estaba tan brillante..... |
Desde el hemisferio sur tendrá excelentes condiciones de observación hasta fines de enero de 2015. Tal vez supere la mag. 4. El máximo de brillo lo alcanzará alrededor del 10 de enero de 2015.
El cometa el 11/1.... foto de Gerald Rhemann |
La curva de luz que sigue fue suministrada por Seiichi Yoshida. (al 12/1/15).
La línea roja es el brillo predicho. Los puntos negros, observaciones. Nota como hasta noviembre de 2014 se mantiene debajo de la predicción. Ahora tiene un pico, es posible una pequeña explosión. Como se ve claramente en la curva, sigue subiendo, pero se esta alejando de la Tierra, asi que es razonable que comience a bajar en cualquier momento.
Los mapas generales
Aqui podras ver aproximandamente por donde pasara el cometa. Son mapas del sitio de S. Yoshida.
Un mapa de mejor calidad del Sky and Telescope |
Predicción exacta
La siguiente predicción es del sitio Horizon de la NASA, y tiene la magnitud vieja, por lo que debes considerar que el cometa está al menos 4 magnitudes (40 veces) mas brillante aproximadamente que lo que predice (la magnitud total, la del núcleo no se modifica).
Las coordenadas sí son exactas, geocentricas. Con esto podrás hallarlo con precisión.
******************************************************************************* Ephemeris / WWW_USER Wed Dec 17 07:11:27 2014 Pasadena, USA / Horizons ******************************************************************************* Target body name: Lovejoy (C/2014 Q2) {source: JPL#14} Center body name: Earth (399) {source: DE-0431LE-0431} Center-site name: GEOCENTRIC ******************************************************************************* Start time : A.D. 2014-Dec-10 00:00:00.0000 UT Stop time : A.D. 2015-Feb-28 00:00:00.0000 UT Step-size : 1440 minutes ******************************************************************************* Target pole/equ : No model available Target radii : (unavailable) Center geodetic : 0.00000000,0.00000000,0.0000000 {E-lon(deg),Lat(deg),Alt(km)} Center cylindric: 0.00000000,0.00000000,0.0000000 {E-lon(deg),Dxy(km),Dz(km)} Center pole/equ : High-precision EOP model {East-longitude +} Center radii : 6378.1 x 6378.1 x 6356.8 km {Equator, meridian, pole} Target primary : Sun Vis. interferer : MOON (R_eq= 1737.400) km {source: DE-0431LE-0431} Rel. light bend : Sun, EARTH {source: DE-0431LE-0431} Rel. lght bnd GM: 1.3271E+11, 3.9860E+05 km^3/s^2 Small-body perts: Yes {source: SB431-BIG16} Atmos refraction: NO (AIRLESS) RA format : HMS Time format : CAL EOP file : eop.141216.p150309 EOP coverage : DATA-BASED 1962-JAN-20 TO 2014-DEC-16. PREDICTS-> 2015-MAR-08 Units conversion: 1 au= 149597870.700 km, c= 299792.458 km/s, 1 day= 86400.0 s Table cut-offs 1: Elevation (-90.0deg=NO ),Airmass (>38.000=NO), Daylight (NO ) Table cut-offs 2: Solar Elongation ( 0.0,180.0=NO ),Local Hour Angle( 0.0=NO ) ******************************************************************************* Initial FK5/J2000.0 heliocentric ecliptic osculating elements (au, days, deg.): EPOCH= 2456948.5 != 2014-Oct-18.0000000 (CT) RMSW= n.a. EC= .997726325391938 QR= 1.290377419757231 TP= 2457052.5726738246 OM= 94.97595375294146 W= 12.39528778787404 IN= 80.30286418086281 Comet physical (GM= km^3/s^2; RAD= km): GM= n.a. RAD= n.a. M1= 9. M2= 12. k1= 10. k2= 5. PHCOF= .030 ************************************************************************************************* Date__(UT)__HR:MN R.A._(ICRF/J2000.0)_DEC T-mag N-mag 1-way_LT S-O-T /r S-T-O Cnst ************************************************************************************************* $$SOE 2014-Dec-10 00:00 07 10 15.46 -42 23 18.1 10.42 13.70 7.124011 108.7441 /L 38.4800 Pup 2014-Dec-11 00:00 07 06 24.34 -42 02 47.5 10.35 13.63 6.953323 109.7038 /L 38.4324 Pup 2014-Dec-12 00:00 07 02 22.18 -41 39 58.8 10.27 13.57 6.784030 110.6858 /L 38.3624 Pup 2014-Dec-13 00:00 06 58 08.75 -41 14 39.7 10.20 13.50 6.616313 111.6903 /L 38.2685 Pup 2014-Dec-14 00:00 06 53 43.85 -40 46 36.5 10.12 13.43 6.450371 112.7173 /L 38.1497 Pup 2014-Dec-15 00:00 06 49 07.33 -40 15 34.9 10.04 13.36 6.286420 113.7667 /L 38.0049 Pup 2014-Dec-16 00:00 06 44 19.07 -39 41 19.3 9.97 13.29 6.124695 114.8380 /L 37.8331 Pup 2014-Dec-17 00:00 06 39 19.01 -39 03 33.1 9.89 13.21 5.965451 115.9304 /L 37.6336 Pup 2014-Dec-18 00:00 06 34 07.18 -38 21 58.7 9.81 13.14 5.808966 117.0425 /L 37.4060 Col 2014-Dec-19 00:00 06 28 43.65 -37 36 17.6 9.73 13.06 5.655542 118.1723 /L 37.1500 Col 2014-Dec-20 00:00 06 23 08.57 -36 46 10.6 9.66 12.99 5.505505 119.3172 /L 36.8662 Col 2014-Dec-21 00:00 06 17 22.19 -35 51 17.5 9.58 12.91 5.359210 120.4735 /L 36.5555 Col 2014-Dec-22 00:00 06 11 24.87 -34 51 18.4 9.50 12.83 5.217038 121.6363 /L 36.2198 Col 2014-Dec-23 00:00 06 05 17.02 -33 45 53.0 9.43 12.75 5.079399 122.7994 /L 35.8618 Col 2014-Dec-24 00:00 05 58 59.21 -32 34 41.7 9.35 12.68 4.946732 123.9551 /T 35.4856 Col 2014-Dec-25 00:00 05 52 32.07 -31 17 25.9 9.28 12.60 4.819504 125.0937 /T 35.0965 Col 2014-Dec-26 00:00 05 45 56.34 -29 53 49.0 9.20 12.52 4.698210 126.2032 /T 34.7014 Col 2014-Dec-27 00:00 05 39 12.86 -28 23 36.9 9.13 12.45 4.583369 127.2696 /T 34.3092 Col 2014-Dec-28 00:00 05 32 22.57 -26 46 39.2 9.06 12.38 4.475521 128.2763 /T 33.9304 Lep 2014-Dec-29 00:00 05 25 26.46 -25 02 49.8 9.00 12.31 4.375222 129.2042 /T 33.5777 Lep 2014-Dec-30 00:00 05 18 25.62 -23 12 08.7 8.93 12.24 4.283035 130.0325 /T 33.2654 Lep 2014-Dec-31 00:00 05 11 21.19 -21 14 42.1 8.88 12.19 4.199526 130.7383 /T 33.0091 Lep 2015-Jan-01 00:00 05 04 14.33 -19 10 44.2 8.82 12.13 4.125243 131.2983 /T 32.8252 Lep 2015-Jan-02 00:00 04 57 06.25 -17 00 37.5 8.77 12.09 4.060714 131.6900 /T 32.7298 Lep 2015-Jan-03 00:00 04 49 58.17 -14 44 53.0 8.73 12.05 4.006422 131.8926 /T 32.7376 Eri 2015-Jan-04 00:00 04 42 51.29 -12 24 10.7 8.69 12.03 3.962796 131.8894 /T 32.8607 Eri 2015-Jan-05 00:00 04 35 46.80 -09 59 18.6 8.66 12.01 3.930192 131.6692 /T 33.1072 Eri 2015-Jan-06 00:00 04 28 45.83 -07 31 11.6 8.63 12.00 3.908881 131.2272 /T 33.4801 Eri 2015-Jan-07 00:00 04 21 49.48 -05 00 50.4 8.61 12.00 3.899036 130.5662 /T 33.9772 Eri 2015-Jan-08 00:00 04 14 58.77 -02 29 18.5 8.60 12.02 3.900728 129.6960 /T 34.5906 Eri 2015-Jan-09 00:00 04 08 14.64 +00 02 19.2 8.60 12.04 3.913914 128.6329 /T 35.3078 Eri 2015-Jan-10 00:00 04 01 37.94 +02 32 59.4 8.60 12.07 3.938449 127.3983 /T 36.1125 Tau 2015-Jan-11 00:00 03 55 09.43 +05 01 42.3 8.61 12.11 3.974082 126.0168 /T 36.9858 Tau 2015-Jan-12 00:00 03 48 49.78 +07 27 34.0 8.62 12.16 4.020473 124.5146 /T 37.9078 Tau 2015-Jan-13 00:00 03 42 39.54 +09 49 47.2 8.64 12.21 4.077203 122.9180 /T 38.8588 Tau 2015-Jan-14 00:00 03 36 39.18 +12 07 42.9 8.67 12.27 4.143787 121.2522 /T 39.8202 Tau 2015-Jan-15 00:00 03 30 49.09 +14 20 49.9 8.70 12.34 4.219695 119.5401 /T 40.7752 Tau 2015-Jan-16 00:00 03 25 09.53 +16 28 45.7 8.74 12.40 4.304363 117.8020 /T 41.7093 Tau 2015-Jan-17 00:00 03 19 40.71 +18 31 15.3 8.77 12.47 4.397207 116.0552 /T 42.6106 Ari 2015-Jan-18 00:00 03 14 22.75 +20 28 10.5 8.82 12.54 4.497638 114.3142 /T 43.4694 Ari 2015-Jan-19 00:00 03 09 15.71 +22 19 29.3 8.86 12.62 4.605073 112.5908 /T 44.2784 Ari 2015-Jan-20 00:00 03 04 19.55 +24 05 14.7 8.91 12.69 4.718941 110.8940 /T 45.0326 Ari 2015-Jan-21 00:00 02 59 34.22 +25 45 33.7 8.96 12.76 4.838689 109.2309 /T 45.7284 Ari 2015-Jan-22 00:00 02 54 59.59 +27 20 36.4 9.01 12.83 4.963791 107.6064 /T 46.3640 Ari 2015-Jan-23 00:00 02 50 35.48 +28 50 35.1 9.06 12.90 5.093746 106.0242 /T 46.9387 Ari 2015-Jan-24 00:00 02 46 21.69 +30 15 43.9 9.11 12.97 5.228084 104.4864 /T 47.4530 Ari 2015-Jan-25 00:00 02 42 17.98 +31 36 17.8 9.16 13.04 5.366368 102.9942 /T 47.9080 Tri 2015-Jan-26 00:00 02 38 24.09 +32 52 32.0 9.22 13.11 5.508188 101.5479 /T 48.3053 Tri 2015-Jan-27 00:00 02 34 39.74 +34 04 42.1 9.27 13.18 5.653167 100.1473 /T 48.6470 Tri 2015-Jan-28 00:00 02 31 04.63 +35 13 03.4 9.33 13.24 5.800955 98.7917 /T 48.9357 Tri 2015-Jan-29 00:00 02 27 38.47 +36 17 50.8 9.38 13.30 5.951231 97.4800 /T 49.1739 Tri 2015-Jan-30 00:00 02 24 20.96 +37 19 18.7 9.44 13.36 6.103697 96.2108 /T 49.3642 And 2015-Jan-31 00:00 02 21 11.79 +38 17 40.7 9.49 13.42 6.258081 94.9829 /T 49.5094 And 2015-Feb-01 00:00 02 18 10.66 +39 13 09.9 9.54 13.48 6.414130 93.7947 /T 49.6122 And 2015-Feb-02 00:00 02 15 17.29 +40 05 58.4 9.60 13.53 6.571614 92.6446 /T 49.6752 And 2015-Feb-03 00:00 02 12 31.37 +40 56 17.7 9.65 13.59 6.730318 91.5310 /T 49.7011 And 2015-Feb-04 00:00 02 09 52.64 +41 44 18.7 9.71 13.64 6.890044 90.4525 /T 49.6923 And 2015-Feb-05 00:00 02 07 20.81 +42 30 11.2 9.76 13.69 7.050612 89.4075 /T 49.6513 And 2015-Feb-06 00:00 02 04 55.62 +43 14 04.6 9.81 13.74 7.211852 88.3945 /T 49.5802 And 2015-Feb-07 00:00 02 02 36.82 +43 56 07.7 9.86 13.79 7.373608 87.4123 /T 49.4813 And 2015-Feb-08 00:00 02 00 24.16 +44 36 28.4 9.92 13.83 7.535735 86.4594 /T 49.3567 And 2015-Feb-09 00:00 01 58 17.40 +45 15 14.2 9.97 13.88 7.698098 85.5347 /T 49.2083 And 2015-Feb-10 00:00 01 56 16.32 +45 52 32.0 10.02 13.92 7.860573 84.6369 /T 49.0380 And 2015-Feb-11 00:00 01 54 20.70 +46 28 28.3 10.07 13.96 8.023042 83.7651 /T 48.8475 And 2015-Feb-12 00:00 01 52 30.32 +47 03 09.1 10.12 14.00 8.185396 82.9181 /T 48.6384 And 2015-Feb-13 00:00 01 50 44.99 +47 36 39.8 10.17 14.04 8.347533 82.0951 /T 48.4123 And 2015-Feb-14 00:00 01 49 04.52 +48 09 05.7 10.22 14.08 8.509357 81.2951 /T 48.1708 Per 2015-Feb-15 00:00 01 47 28.72 +48 40 31.4 10.27 14.12 8.670778 80.5173 /T 47.9151 And 2015-Feb-16 00:00 01 45 57.42 +49 11 01.4 10.32 14.16 8.831713 79.7609 /T 47.6465 And 2015-Feb-17 00:00 01 44 30.44 +49 40 39.8 10.37 14.19 8.992079 79.0253 /T 47.3663 And 2015-Feb-18 00:00 01 43 07.61 +50 09 30.4 10.42 14.23 9.151804 78.3099 /T 47.0757 And 2015-Feb-19 00:00 01 41 48.79 +50 37 36.8 10.47 14.26 9.310815 77.6139 /T 46.7756 And 2015-Feb-20 00:00 01 40 33.80 +51 05 02.4 10.52 14.29 9.469046 76.9368 /T 46.4673 Per 2015-Feb-21 00:00 01 39 22.50 +51 31 50.0 10.56 14.32 9.626435 76.2782 /T 46.1516 Per 2015-Feb-22 00:00 01 38 14.74 +51 58 02.6 10.61 14.36 9.782925 75.6374 /T 45.8295 Per 2015-Feb-23 00:00 01 37 10.39 +52 23 42.8 10.66 14.39 9.938462 75.0141 /T 45.5018 Per 2015-Feb-24 00:00 01 36 09.29 +52 48 53.0 10.70 14.42 10.092998 74.4078 /T 45.1694 Per 2015-Feb-25 00:00 01 35 11.34 +53 13 35.4 10.75 14.45 10.246486 73.8181 /T 44.8330 Per 2015-Feb-26 00:00 01 34 16.40 +53 37 52.1 10.80 14.48 10.398887 73.2446 /T 44.4934 Per 2015-Feb-27 00:00 01 33 24.36 +54 01 45.1 10.84 14.50 10.550161 72.6869 /T 44.1513 Per 2015-Feb-28 00:00 01 32 35.12 +54 25 16.1 10.89 14.53 10.700273 72.1448 /T 43.8073 Per $$EOE ************************************************************************************************* Column meaning: TIME Prior to 1962, times are UT1. Dates thereafter are UTC. Any 'b' symbol in the 1st-column denotes a B.C. date. First-column blank (" ") denotes an A.D. date. Calendar dates prior to 1582-Oct-15 are in the Julian calendar system. Later calendar dates are in the Gregorian system. Time tags refer to the same instant throughout the universe, regardless of where the observer is located. The dynamical Coordinate Time scale is used internally. It is equivalent to the current IAU definition of "TDB". Conversion between CT and the selected non-uniform UT output scale has not been determined for UTC times after the next July or January 1st. The last known leap-second is used over any future interval. NOTE: "n.a." in output means quantity "not available" at the print-time. R.A._(ICRF/J2000.0)_DEC = J2000.0 astrometric right ascension and declination of target center. Adjusted for light-time. Units: HMS (HH MM SS.ff) and DMS (DD MM SS.f) T-mag N-mag = Comet's approximate apparent visual total magnitude ("T-mag") and nuclear magnitude ("N-mag") by following standard IAU definitions: T-mag = M1 + 5*log10(delta) + k1*log10(r) N-mag = M2 + 5*log10(delta) + k2*log10(r) + phcof*beta Units: MAGNITUDES 1-way_LT = 1-way down-leg light-time from target center to observer. The elapsed time since light (observed at print-time) would have left or reflected off a point at the center of the target. Units: MINUTES S-O-T /r = Sun-Observer-Target angle; target's apparent solar elongation seen from observer location at print-time. If negative, the target center is behind the Sun. Angular units: DEGREES. The '/r' column is a Sun-relative code, output for observing sites with defined rotation models only. /T indicates target trails Sun (evening sky) /L indicates target leads Sun (morning sky) NOTE: The S-O-T solar elongation angle is the total separation in any direction. It does not indicate the angle of Sun leading or trailing. S-T-O = "S-T-O" is the Sun->Target->Observer angle; the interior vertex angle at target center formed by a vector to the apparent center of the Sun at reflection time on the target and the apparent vector to the observer at print-time. Slightly different from true PHASE ANGLE (requestable separately) at the few arcsecond level in that it includes stellar aberration on the down-leg from target to observer. Units: DEGREES Cnst = Constellation ID; the 3-letter abbreviation for the name of the constellation containing the target center's astrometric position, as defined by IAU (1930) boundary delineation. See documentation for list of abbreviations. Computations by ... Solar System Dynamics Group, Horizons On-Line Ephemeris System 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Jet Propulsion Laboratory Pasadena, CA 91109 USA Information: http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/ Connect : telnet://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov:6775 (via browser) telnet ssd.jpl.nasa.gov 6775 (via command-line) Author : Jon.Giorgini@jpl.nasa.gov
Hola!. Hay un pequeño error de tipeo en Lepus: 28/12 al 2/2/15, cuando debe decir: 28/12 al 2/1/15 en Lepus, si no me equivoco. Muchas gracias: Cristian.
ResponderEliminarCristian:
EliminarTienes razón!!! Lo corrijo. Gracias por tu interés en Infobservador.
Saludos