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martes, 12 de mayo de 2020

El brillante cometa Lemmon (c/2019 U6)

Tenemos otro cometa en buen horario y posición. Tal vez llegue a ser visible a simple vista desde cielos oscuros.

Arriba del centro se ve el cometa, con su característico color verdoso. Foto: José Luis Sanchis.

Pasará muy cerca de objetos brillantes o estrellas notables, lo que facilitará encontrarlo. De hecho el 27/5 pasa a pocos grados de Sirio.


La historia


Fue descubierto el 31/102019 por R. A. Kowalski (Mt. Lemmon Survey). De allí su nombre. Cuando se lo descubrió se pensaba que era un asteroide, ya que no mostraba gas a su alrededor. Luego se activó. El cometa llegará al perihelio el 18/6/2020 (0,92 UA) y después, el 29/6 a la mínima distancia a la Tierra (0,83 UA).

La predicción

Te conviene cargar el Stellarium para verlo exactamente desde tu lugar de observación.

El cometa se está abrillantando mucho y rápidamente.  Podría llegar a la magnitud 4.

Pasará por lugares muy bonitos para ver o fotografiar.

Cuando              Estará muy cerca de:

17/5/2020           estrella 44 Lepus
24/5/2020           estrella Hip 31266 (mag. 6,3) 
27/5/2020           Cúmulo M41(cerca de Sirio)
29/5/2020           estrella Pi Can Mayor (mag. 4,6)
03/6/2020           estrella Hip 35727 (mag. 4,9)
16/6/2020           D Hydra (mag. 4,3)
23/6/2020           Estrella Alphard (Alfa Hydrae - mag. 2)
19 a 20/7/2020      Cruza el cúmulo Virgo de galaxias.   

Los mapas generales



Y la predicción detallada


Recuerda que esta predicción es segura en cuanto a las posiciones, no las magnitudes. El cometa seguramente estará al menos 5 magnitudes mas brillante.



La predicción

*******************************************************************************
Initial IAU76/J2000 heliocentric ecliptic osculating elements (au, days, deg.):
  EPOCH=  2458809.5 ! 2019-Nov-22.0000000 (TDB)    RMSW= n.a.                  
   EC= .9979241727098472   QR= .9142778354275892   TP= 2459019.3197107585      
   OM= 235.7084178817826   W= 329.6560408361095    IN= 61.00377569932609       
  Equivalent ICRF heliocentric equatorial cartesian coordinates (au, au/d):
   X= 7.798752705832959E-01  Y= 3.094635971228304E+00  Z=-3.727914284896043E-01
  VX=-7.462998151252128E-03 VY=-1.051171480650500E-02 VZ=-4.162606906957826E-03
Comet physical (GM= km^3/s^2; RAD= km):                                        
   GM= n.a.                RAD= n.a.                                           
   M1=  11.7     M2=  13.2     k1=  11.    k2=  5.      PHCOF=  .030           
**************************************************************************************************************
 Date__(UT)__HR:MN     R.A._____(ICRF)_____DEC  T-mag  N-mag            delta     S-O-T /r    S-T-O
********************************************************************************************************$$SOE
 2020-May-12 00:00     05 42 59.63 -21 46 20.6  12.99  15.55 1.38373706833363   53.6936 /T  46.0164
 2020-May-13 00:00     05 46 13.16 -21 42 55.4  12.93  15.53 1.36864965275229   53.7194 /T  46.5788
 2020-May-14 00:00     05 49 31.34 -21 39 17.7  12.86  15.50 1.35347084751670   53.7510 /T  47.1534
 2020-May-15 00:00     05 52 54.32 -21 35 26.1  12.80  15.48 1.33820884863392   53.7882 /T  47.7402
 2020-May-16 00:00     05 56 22.23 -21 31 19.2  12.73  15.45 1.32287235321748   53.8307 /T  48.3389
 2020-May-17 00:00     05 59 55.22 -21 26 55.1  12.66  15.42 1.30747058947516   53.8784 /T  48.9494
 2020-May-18 00:00     06 03 33.42 -21 22 12.4  12.60  15.40 1.29201334528829   53.9311 /T  49.5713
 2020-May-19 00:00     06 07 16.99 -21 17 09.0  12.53  15.37 1.27651099643120   53.9884 /T  50.2043
 2020-May-20 00:00     06 11 06.07 -21 11 43.0  12.47  15.35 1.26097453522446   54.0503 /T  50.8480
 2020-May-21 00:00     06 15 00.82 -21 05 52.4  12.40  15.32 1.24541560011508   54.1165 /T  51.5019
 2020-May-22 00:00     06 19 01.38 -20 59 34.9  12.33  15.30 1.22984650636810   54.1867 /T  52.1655
 2020-May-23 00:00     06 23 07.91 -20 52 48.1  12.27  15.27 1.21428027774257   54.2608 /T  52.8383
 2020-May-24 00:00     06 27 20.56 -20 45 29.6  12.20  15.25 1.19873067872433   54.3386 /T  53.5194
 2020-May-25 00:00     06 31 39.47 -20 37 36.7  12.14  15.22 1.18321224663564   54.4199 /T  54.2082
 2020-May-26 00:00     06 36 04.80 -20 29 06.7  12.07  15.20 1.16774032277936   54.5046 /T  54.9038
 2020-May-27 00:00     06 40 36.68 -20 19 56.6  12.01  15.18 1.15233108173129   54.5923 /T  55.6053
 2020-May-28 00:00     06 45 15.26 -20 10 03.3  11.95  15.15 1.13700155793223   54.6831 /T  56.3117
 2020-May-29 00:00     06 50 00.66 -19 59 23.6  11.89  15.13 1.12176966876073   54.7767 /T  57.0217
 2020-May-30 00:00     06 54 53.02 -19 47 54.3  11.83  15.11 1.10665423317211   54.8731 /T  57.7342
 2020-May-31 00:00     06 59 52.44 -19 35 31.8  11.77  15.09 1.09167498468964   54.9721 /T  58.4478
 2020-Jun-01 00:00     07 04 59.03 -19 22 12.5  11.71  15.07 1.07685257707572   55.0737 /T  59.1610
 2020-Jun-02 00:00     07 10 12.89 -19 07 52.8  11.65  15.04 1.06220858060838   55.1779 /T  59.8723
 2020-Jun-03 00:00     07 15 34.08 -18 52 28.9  11.59  15.02 1.04776546690850   55.2846 /T  60.5799
 2020-Jun-04 00:00     07 21 02.68 -18 35 57.1  11.54  15.00 1.03354658105173   55.3939 /T  61.2821
 2020-Jun-05 00:00     07 26 38.73 -18 18 13.6  11.48  14.98 1.01957610122359   55.5057 /T  61.9767
 2020-Jun-06 00:00     07 32 22.24 -17 59 14.6  11.43  14.96 1.00587898776719   55.6204 /T  62.6619
 2020-Jun-07 00:00     07 38 13.21 -17 38 56.4  11.38  14.95 0.99248092404825   55.7379 /T  63.3353
 2020-Jun-08 00:00     07 44 11.62 -17 17 15.6  11.33  14.93 0.97940825047712   55.8585 /T  63.9947
 2020-Jun-09 00:00     07 50 17.38 -16 54 08.6  11.29  14.91 0.96668789076163   55.9825 /T  64.6376
 2020-Jun-10 00:00     07 56 30.42 -16 29 32.5  11.24  14.89 0.95434726733005   56.1101 /T  65.2616
 2020-Jun-11 00:00     08 02 50.59 -16 03 24.3  11.20  14.88 0.94241420193937   56.2417 /T  65.8640
 2020-Jun-12 00:00     08 09 17.73 -15 35 41.7  11.16  14.86 0.93091679792806   56.3777 /T  66.4422
 2020-Jun-13 00:00     08 15 51.62 -15 06 22.4  11.12  14.85 0.91988330183136   56.5184 /T  66.9935
 2020-Jun-14 00:00     08 22 32.02 -14 35 25.1  11.09  14.83 0.90934194350837   56.6643 /T  67.5153
 2020-Jun-15 00:00     08 29 18.63 -14 02 48.6  11.05  14.82 0.89932075518879   56.8158 /T  68.0048
 2020-Jun-16 00:00     08 36 11.11 -13 28 32.6  11.03  14.81 0.88984737088215   56.9734 /T  68.4595
 2020-Jun-17 00:00     08 43 09.08 -12 52 37.5  11.00  14.80 0.88094880850531   57.1375 /T  68.8769
 2020-Jun-18 00:00     08 50 12.13 -12 15 04.4  10.98  14.79 0.87265123797138   57.3086 /T  69.2544
 2020-Jun-19 00:00     08 57 19.79 -11 35 55.1  10.96  14.78 0.86497973938246   57.4870 /T  69.5899
 2020-Jun-20 00:00     09 04 31.57 -10 55 12.5  10.94  14.77 0.85795805633123   57.6730 /T  69.8812
 2020-Jun-21 00:00     09 11 46.93 -10 13 00.1  10.93  14.76 0.85160835002126   57.8671 /T  70.1264
 2020-Jun-22 00:00     09 19 05.32 -09 29 22.5  10.92  14.76 0.84595096031712   58.0692 /T  70.3241
 2020-Jun-23 00:00     09 26 26.15 -08 44 24.9  10.91  14.75 0.84100417982347   58.2796 /T  70.4729
 2020-Jun-24 00:00     09 33 48.80 -07 58 13.6  10.91  14.75 0.83678404668093   58.4982 /T  70.5719
 2020-Jun-25 00:00     09 41 12.67 -07 10 55.4  10.91  14.74 0.83330416110624   58.7248 /T  70.6203
 2020-Jun-26 00:00     09 48 37.11 -06 22 38.0  10.92  14.74 0.83057553000640   58.9593 /T  70.6180
 2020-Jun-27 00:00     09 56 01.49 -05 33 29.6  10.92  14.74 0.82860644338278   59.2012 /T  70.5651
 2020-Jun-28 00:00     10 03 25.19 -04 43 39.0  10.94  14.74 0.82740238563827   59.4500 /T  70.4620
 2020-Jun-29 00:00     10 10 47.58 -03 53 15.1  10.95  14.74 0.82696598410532   59.7051 /T  70.3096
 2020-Jun-30 00:00     10 18 08.06 -03 02 27.4  10.97  14.75 0.82729699597242   59.9658 /T  70.1091
 2020-Jul-01 00:00     10 25 26.05 -02 11 25.3  11.00  14.75 0.82839233340002   60.2310 /T  69.8619
 2020-Jul-02 00:00     10 32 41.01 -01 20 18.3  11.02  14.76 0.83024612533003   60.5000 /T  69.5699
 2020-Jul-03 00:00     10 39 52.39 -00 29 15.8  11.05  14.77 0.83284981373460   60.7717 /T  69.2352
 2020-Jul-04 00:00     10 46 59.73 +00 21 33.2  11.09  14.77 0.83619228198952   61.0450 /T  68.8599
 2020-Jul-05 00:00     10 54 02.58 +01 12 00.0  11.12  14.78 0.84026001338723   61.3189 /T  68.4466
 2020-Jul-06 00:00     11 01 00.52 +02 01 56.2  11.16  14.80 0.84503727783294   61.5923 /T  67.9978
 2020-Jul-07 00:00     11 07 53.19 +02 51 14.3  11.20  14.81 0.85050634392075   61.8641 /T  67.5161
 2020-Jul-08 00:00     11 14 40.28 +03 39 47.1  11.25  14.82 0.85664771189714   62.1333 /T  67.0045
 2020-Jul-09 00:00     11 21 21.49 +04 27 28.2  11.30  14.84 0.86344036115669   62.3988 /T  66.4655
 2020-Jul-10 00:00     11 27 56.59 +05 14 11.9  11.35  14.85 0.87086200469267   62.6597 /T  65.9020
 2020-Jul-11 00:00     11 34 25.38 +05 59 53.1  11.40  14.87 0.87888934277083   62.9152 /T  65.3166
$$EOE
*******************************************************************************************************
Column meaning:

TIME

  Times PRIOR to 1962 are UT1, a mean-solar time closely related to the
prior but now-deprecated GMT. Times AFTER 1962 are in UTC, the current
civil or "wall-clock" time-scale. UTC is kept within 0.9 seconds of UT1
using integer leap-seconds for 1972 and later years.

  Conversion from the internal Barycentric Dynamical Time (TDB) of solar
system dynamics to the non-uniform civil UT time-scale requested for output
has not been determined for UTC times after the next July or January 1st.
Therefore, the last known leap-second is used as a constant over future
intervals.

  Time tags refer to the UT time-scale conversion from TDB on Earth
regardless of observer location within the solar system, although clock
rates may differ due to the local gravity field and no analog to "UT"
may be defined for that location.

  Any 'b' symbol in the 1st-column denotes a B.C. date. First-column blank
(" ") denotes an A.D. date. Calendar dates prior to 1582-Oct-15 are in the
Julian calendar system. Later calendar dates are in the Gregorian system.

  NOTE: "n.a." in output means quantity "not available" at the print-time.

 R.A._____(ICRF)_____DEC =
  Astrometric right ascension and declination of the target center with
respect to the observing site (coordinate origin) in the reference frame of
the planetary ephemeris (ICRF). Compensated for down-leg light-time delay
aberration.

  Units: RA  in hours-minutes-seconds of time   (HH MM SS.ff)
         DEC in degrees-minutes-seconds of arc  (sDD MN SC.f)

 T-mag N-mag =
   Comet's approximate apparent visual total magnitude ("T-mag") and nuclear
magnitude ("N-mag") by following standard IAU definitions:
    T-mag =  M1 + 5*log10(delta) + k1*log10(r)
    N-mag =  M2 + 5*log10(delta) + k2*log10(r) + phcof*beta
   Units: MAGNITUDES

 delta  deldot =
   Range ("delta") and range-rate ("delta-dot") of target center with respect
to the observer at the instant light seen by the observer at print-time would
have left the target center (print-time minus down-leg light-time); the
distance traveled by a light ray emanating from the center of the target and
recorded by the observer at print-time. "deldot" is a projection of the
velocity vector along this ray, the light-time-corrected line-of-sight from
the coordinate center, and indicates relative motion. A positive "deldot"
means the target center is moving away from the observer (coordinate center).
A negative "deldot" means the target center is moving toward the observer.
Units: AU and KM/S

 S-O-T /r =
    Sun-Observer-Target angle; target's apparent SOLAR ELONGATION seen from
the observer location at print-time. Angular units: DEGREES

    The '/r' column indicates the target's apparent position relative to
the Sun in the observer's sky, as described below:

    For an observing location on the surface of a rotating body
(considering its rotational sense):

    /T indicates target TRAILS Sun (evening sky; rises and sets AFTER Sun)
    /L indicates target LEADS Sun  (morning sky; rises and sets BEFORE Sun)

For an observing point NOT on a rotating body (such as a spacecraft), the
"leading" and "trailing" condition is defined by the observer's
heliocentric orbital motion: if continuing in the observer's current
direction of heliocentric motion would encounter the target's apparent
longitude first, followed by the Sun's, the target LEADS the Sun as seen by
the observer. If the Sun's apparent longitude would be encountered first,
followed by the target's, the target TRAILS the Sun.

NOTE: The S-O-T solar elongation angle is numerically the minimum
separation angle of the Sun and target in the sky in any direction. It
does NOT indicate the amount of separation in the leading or trailing
directions, which are defined in the equator of a spherical coordinate
system.

 S-T-O =
   "S-T-O" is the Sun->Target->Observer angle; the interior vertex angle at
target center formed by a vector to the apparent center of the Sun at
reflection time on the target and the apparent vector to the observer at
print-time. Slightly different from true PHASE ANGLE (requestable separately)
at the few arcsecond level in that it includes stellar aberration on the
down-leg from target to observer.  Units: DEGREES


 Computations by ...
     Solar System Dynamics Group, Horizons On-Line Ephemeris System
     4800 Oak Grove Drive, Jet Propulsion Laboratory
     Pasadena, CA  91109   USA
     Information: http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/
     Connect    : telnet://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov:6775  (via browser)
                  telnet ssd.jpl.nasa.gov 6775    (via command-line)
     Author     : Jon.D.Giorgini@jpl.nasa.gov

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